Capital2's Blog

Recruitment and Career advice for the High Tech and Banking Industries

The beginning of the end for the Euro??

The current furore over the Greek national debt / sovereign bond status has really highlighted the precarious state of monetary union.
We here at Cap2 really like the Euro and living in the Eurozone, it facilitates pan european business immensely. However there are various rumours afoot that the institution of the Euro is under threat.
The main theory is that Germany could pull out of the Euro, and create a kind of counter single euro zone based around the Mark. They could therefore escape having to prop up those countries running at huge deficits (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain in particular) and could invite the up and coming eastern european countries to join their single currency zone.The Germans feel it is unfair that they should have to pay for running their economy responsibly. this would be disastrous for the EU – its largest economy turning its back on the euro!!
Probably the best solution would be for Greece to drop out of the euro, go back to the drachma, and try to regain her competitiveness (this would be easier for them to do if they were running their own currency – see the way the us and uk ‘printed money’ to stabilise their economies following the banking crisis).
However this would signal a massive failure in the european project… would Greece be able to stay in the EU? Would this hasten the calls for political union and therefore threaten to splinter the member states???
The ramifications of the next few days could be huge… let’s hope that the IMF and the EU member states can come to some form of agreement, as the last thing we need is a double-dip recession….
The effect on the recruitment markets would be considerable – would people continue to hire in uncertain times, would the euro drop sufficiently against the dollar to make it cheaper for firms to hire??? Would a drop in the euro reverse the trend of manufacturing outsourcing to the far east??
The early months of 2010 seemed buoyant, but confidence is a fragile thing. Could be an interesting few weeks!!!!!

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April 29, 2010 - Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , ,

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